Crude oil weekly prices surged over 4%, with base metals nearly all rising. LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rose over 2% [overnight market].

SMM May 10 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only LME tin experiencing a decline of 0.27%. LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel all surged by over 2%, with LME lead up 2.11%, LME nickel up 2.03%, and SHFE nickel up 2.05%. LME zinc rose by 1.39%, while the percentage changes of other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 0.5%.

In the ferrous metals series, prices generally declined overnight, with only iron ore and stainless steel rising together. Iron ore increased by 0.07%, and stainless steel rose by 0.43%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coke fell by 1.34%, and coking coal dropped by 1.64%.

In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose by 0.7%, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. COMEX silver rose by 0.81%, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.33%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.88%. Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, stated that geographical and currency diversification are key to successfully navigating the current market conditions. Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, also mentioned that under the base case scenario of sustained GDP growth in the US and globally over the next 12 months, gold prices are expected to reach $4,000 per ounce.

As of 9:01 on May 10, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew by 2.4% in the First Four Months, with Increased Exports of Integrated Circuits and Automobiles] According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods reached 14.14 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year (the same hereinafter) increase of 2.4%. Exports amounted to 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, while imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. In the first four months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 5.04 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were worth 458.71 billion yuan, up 5.6%; integrated circuits were worth 405.15 billion yuan, up 14.7%; and automobiles were worth 264.98 billion yuan, up 4%. According to CCTV News, Lu Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, stated that since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting a sustained rebound and improvement in China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth trend.The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports turning from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. 》Click to view details

SMM has compiled data on the import and export of some metal industry products based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows:

》Click to view details

US dollar:

The US dollar fell 0.22% overnight but gained 0.39% on a weekly basis, recording three consecutive weeks of gains. The first US Fed official to speak after this week's policy meeting reiterated on Friday that with the Trump administration's trade policies exacerbating risks to the economic outlook, current economic uncertainties require patience in monetary policy.

US Fed Governor Barr stated that Trump's trade policies could push up inflation, reduce economic growth, and raise the unemployment rate later this year, posing difficult choices for policymakers on which issue to address first. New York Fed President Williams said that, in terms of the current state of US Fed policy, "we are in a good position." He refused to speculate on the direction of monetary policy amid uncertainties.

US Fed Governor Kugler said that a healthy economy "gives us time" to wait for more progress in reducing inflationary pressures before considering the next steps. Both Williams and Kugler believe that the current interest rate policy has a modest restraining effect on economic activity.

Other currencies:

The US dollar rose on a weekly basis against major currencies such as the Swiss franc, yen, and euro, following increased optimism from the US-UK trade deal.

The US dollar against the Swiss franc is on track to rise for the fourth consecutive week.

The euro against the US dollar is set to fall for the third consecutive week. However, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.17% to $1.125025 in late New York trading on Friday.

The US dollar against the yen is set to rise for the third consecutive week but fell 0.39% to 145.355 yen on Friday.

The British pound rose against the US dollar and is still on track to record a weekly gain after falling following the announcement of the US-UK trade deal on Thursday. The pound rose 0.50% to $1.3306 in late New York trading.

Macro:

In China next week, data to be released include the annual rate of M2 money supply in April, China's total social financing from the beginning of the year to April, China's new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to April, the operation scale of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) on May 15, the MLF bid-winning interest rate on May 15, the annual rate of total electricity consumption in April, and other monthly data.

In the US, data to be released include the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in April, the 1-year gold price increase expectation of the New York Fed in April, the unadjusted annual rate of CPI in April, the unadjusted annual rate of core CPI in April, the unadjusted annual rate of energy CPI in April, the New York Fed's manufacturing index for May, the New York Fed's 6-month manufacturing expectations index for May, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for May, the annual rate of PPI in April, the annual rate of core PPI in April, the monthly rate of core retail sales in April, the annual rate of retail sales in April, the monthly rate of industrial output in April, the capacity utilisation rate in April, the monthly rate of manufacturing output in April, the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate in April, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of industrial output in April, the initial annualized total of building permits in April, the initial monthly rate of building permits in April, the annual rate of import price index in April, the annualized monthly rate of housing starts in April, the total annualized housing starts in April, and the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May.

In Japan, data to be released include the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March based on customs data by the Bank of Japan, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate in Q1, and the initial value of the seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate in Q1. In the UK, data to be released include the March unemployment rate according to ILO standards, the annual rate of average earnings including bonuses for the three months to March, the monthly GDP growth rate in March, the monthly industrial output growth rate in March, the annual industrial output growth rate in March, the seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance in March, the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March, and the initial value of the annual production-based GDP growth rate in Q1. In the eurozone, data to be released include the ZEW economic sentiment index for May, the revised seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q1, the revised seasonally adjusted annual GDP growth rate in Q1, the total reserve assets in April, and the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March. In Australia, data to be released include the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending May 11, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in April, and the change in employed population in April. Data such as the expected inflation rate for the next two years in Q2 in New Zealand, the expected inflation rate for the next year in Q2 in New Zealand, the monthly rate of manufacturing sales in March in Canada, the monthly rate of new manufacturing orders in March in Canada, the ZEW economic sentiment index for May in Germany, and the final annual rate of CPI in March in Germany will also be released.

In addition, Fed Governor Kugler is scheduled to deliver a speech. US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event. The US Fed will convene the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on monetary policy and economic research, and is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's commitment to a monetary policy framework review every five years, until the 16th. The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting, and the Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, will deliver a speech.

Crude oil:

Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with US crude up 1.92% and Brent crude up 1.65%. Weekly gains were also recorded for the first time since mid-April, with US crude up 4.75% and Brent crude up 4.23%. This was supported by the US and the UK reaching a trade agreement, which made investors optimistic about further easing of trade tensions.

Alex Hodes, an oil analyst at brokerage firm StoneX, said, "Although the energy market has been bearish, it eventually shed some of the pessimism, and as trade relations began to make progress, optimism re-emerged following the broader market."

Marcus McGregor, head of commodity research at asset management company Conning, stated that the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain and largely depends on the US economic trajectory, its trade policies, and the enforcement of sanctions against Iran and Russia.

This week, OPEC and its allies, the OPEC+ alliance, plan to increase oil production, which has limited the rise in oil prices. However, a survey showed that OPEC's oil production slightly declined in April due to reduced output in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq.